Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2079

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.65, p 0.058). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2078, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2079
    18 Oct 2026, 13:34 UTC

    TTC6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTTC6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0cf7a4984e33e3f6

    discovery+0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.65, p 0.058)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ec8ba4caf6d5b7d1667bf0b6…
    follows 03d8796818ed…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2079: TTC6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.69, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TTC6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.