Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 2014

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.183). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 2013, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 2014
    18 Oct 2026, 11:57 UTC

    FGF14

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGF14 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered59afec6853eee852

    discovery+0.49 p=0.183 n=9

    replication+0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.49, p 0.183)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2b7c0747e89fdb8fab43a863…
    follows 4dc10a3de0a4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 2014: FGF14 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.51 (p 0.030, n 18), 95% CI +0.06 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.45 to +0.74, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF14 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.