Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1976

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1975, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1976
    18 Oct 2026, 11:02 UTC

    IQGAP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIQGAP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf3b1052704c20c97

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication+0.20 p=0.602 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ef78f5da86aba63b7bfd779f…
    follows d3c486876134…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1976: IQGAP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IQGAP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.