Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1903

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.190). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1902, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1903
    18 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC

    SCYL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCYL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaf02ef17d3bed541

    discovery-0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.190)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e108435d13b6714c139ff87f…
    follows dfc6e0be6823…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1903: SCYL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI -0.81 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.69 to -0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCYL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.