Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0019

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.418). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 18, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0019
    16 Oct 2026, 14:56 UTC

    PARK7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPARK7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2074fbeffb1ca251

    discovery-0.13 p=0.418 n=42

    replication-0.26 p=0.093 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.13, p 0.418)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    de68ab667aaf6614e7784d10…
    follows 455b808d9554…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0019: PARK7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.049, n 84), 95% CI -0.41 to -0.00. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.22 (p 0.049, n 84). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.118, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.25 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.159, n 75). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.31 (p 0.0043, n 84) vs -0.22 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PARK7 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up PARK7 · OPCs · braak: ventral tegmental area -0.38 p 4.8e-4 (needs p < 0.013)