Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1882

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.137). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1881, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1882
    18 Oct 2026, 08:48 UTC

    SH3RF3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSH3RF3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf7f84e75b7483e3f

    discovery-0.54 p=0.137 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.54, p 0.137)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    568c521128e4e4d03e0df9be…
    follows 26c98f73776d…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1882: SH3RF3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SH3RF3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.