Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1872

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1871, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1872
    18 Oct 2026, 08:31 UTC

    SLC2A4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC2A4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered63fbfc445b469eb0

    discovery-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.803 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    02259c49f11e8c49aff79074…
    follows 24d84ac44ecc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1872: SLC2A4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.50 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC2A4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.