Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0185

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.022; held-out +0.34 p 0.373). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 184, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0185
    16 Oct 2026, 18:29 UTC

    SCN3A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCN3A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered85915535b79dc179

    discovery+0.74 p=0.022 n=9

    replication+0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.74 p 0.022; held-out +0.34 p 0.373)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    5f60a21723094eaae09fde64…
    follows a86bf743e80a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0185: SCN3A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18), 95% CI +0.15 to +0.82. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.52 to +0.72, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN3A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.