Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1843

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.039; held-out +0.38 p 0.311). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1842, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1843
    18 Oct 2026, 07:50 UTC

    PTPRK

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPTPRK in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcd3c5424f1c4934a

    discovery+0.69 p=0.039 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.69 p 0.039; held-out +0.38 p 0.311)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    6db75e4959309db3a0d1d204…
    follows a55e604af893…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1843: PTPRK in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.53 (p 0.022, n 18), 95% CI +0.09 to +0.80. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.53 (p 0.022, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.70 (p 0.0012, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.47 to +0.67, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.53 (p 0.022, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTPRK in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.