Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0183

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.67 p 0.047; held-out +0.14 p 0.722). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 182, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0183
    16 Oct 2026, 18:26 UTC

    RIT2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRIT2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered14bfba8b0d7f2683

    discovery+0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    replication+0.14 p=0.722 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.67 p 0.047; held-out +0.14 p 0.722)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    357e0bf563debe6471302969…
    follows 322cf632d01f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0183: RIT2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.45 (p 0.060, n 18), 95% CI -0.02 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.38 to +0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.45 (p 0.060, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RIT2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.