Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1828

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1827, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1828
    18 Oct 2026, 07:28 UTC

    PPP2R5C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPP2R5C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb46c97e2c0028aa0

    discovery+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    replication-0.60 p=0.089 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e381d6a2870d8ded1b830595…
    follows 34176040dae7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1828: PPP2R5C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.06, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP2R5C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.