Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1814

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1813, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1814
    18 Oct 2026, 07:08 UTC

    CTNNA2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCTNNA2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7ce6376b4a5373d6

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4c276dcc7cc69d3d7e76e894…
    follows a56c63d99597…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1814: CTNNA2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CTNNA2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.