Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1765

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.244). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1764, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1765
    18 Oct 2026, 06:02 UTC

    SGK3

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSGK3 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3a35b908da25176b

    discovery+0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    replication-0.28 p=0.472 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.244)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    17c15eca0e32f2991dbb9e35…
    follows 5bd2b638c6fb…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1765: SGK3 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.07, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SGK3 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.