Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1734

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.047; held-out -0.02 p 0.959). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1733, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1734
    18 Oct 2026, 05:18 UTC

    SNCAIP

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionSNCAIP in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf3e64e1def9ec7c2

    discovery-0.67 p=0.047 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.959 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.67 p 0.047; held-out -0.02 p 0.959)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    b375c79a7ab5fe8b298ea5a6…
    follows 65a6a30c53bd…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1734: SNCAIP in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SNCAIP in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.