Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1725

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1724, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1725
    18 Oct 2026, 05:05 UTC

    RIPK4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRIPK4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda023fb8195c062e4

    discovery-0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.651 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e6df962c88bec73dc14b6fc2…
    follows a7aee02c2b41…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1725: RIPK4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RIPK4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.