Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0170

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 169, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0170
    16 Oct 2026, 18:06 UTC

    CDKN1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDKN1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddc1a0c33262d67ab

    discovery-0.50 p=0.168 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.111 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.168)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a1265a19f1a4049b2a7b8c9…
    follows a043b5ac58e9…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0170: CDKN1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDKN1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.