Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1584

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.699). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1583, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1584
    18 Oct 2026, 02:16 UTC

    SCYL3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCYL3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8342ee0fccffc3a1

    discovery+0.15 p=0.699 n=9

    replication-0.12 p=0.761 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.699)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0d9b157251f71d0bb4c088a4…
    follows 09d06554fbcc…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1584: SCYL3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.40 to +0.53. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.21, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCYL3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.