Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1580

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.489). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1579, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1580
    18 Oct 2026, 02:11 UTC

    NTS

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNTS in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered83cc865f01861f7f

    discovery+0.27 p=0.489 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.27, p 0.489)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    855ca1644235cc6ca597fa22…
    follows ce28153f92d5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1580: NTS in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NTS in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.