Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0015

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.00, p 0.998). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0015
    16 Oct 2026, 14:50 UTC

    PLA2G6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLA2G6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf40ab0a882f4f6c1

    discovery-0.00 p=0.998 n=42

    replication-0.13 p=0.422 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.00, p 0.998)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1216b3f10e4063bea892c962…
    follows 592f91ab35c5…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0015: PLA2G6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.05 (p 0.620, n 84), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.16. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.05 (p 0.647, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.458, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.563, n 75). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: +0.54 (p 1.3e-7, n 84) vs -0.05 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLA2G6 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up PLA2G6 · microglia · braak: ventral tegmental area +0.42 p 1.2e-4 (needs p < 0.050)