Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1499

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1498, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1499
    18 Oct 2026, 00:12 UTC

    AP4S1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAP4S1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered47ae2a8c879af62a

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4c676e5f076d9a2ff55270ee…
    follows 4c94ee3eb23c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1499: AP4S1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AP4S1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.