Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0147

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.10, p 0.720). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 146, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0147
    16 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC

    NDUFC2

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionNDUFC2 in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registerede1ca71d101c36220

    discovery+0.10 p=0.720 n=26

    replication+0.29 p=0.282 n=29

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r +0.10, p 0.720)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e9f7a207d61a1cf77bdd9189…
    follows 3da6b3a2fa51…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0147: NDUFC2 in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample +0.23 (p 0.239, n 55), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: +0.28 (p 0.152, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.313, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.388, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
braak beats resilience for NDUFC2 in dopamine neurons: -0.53 (p 1.8e-7, n 84). proposing braak.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.