Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1450

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.181). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1449, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1450
    17 Oct 2026, 23:04 UTC

    TRIOBP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRIOBP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf13ff94184b8ef2e

    discovery-0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.276 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.181)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1ed36b8dac4069f2e337fffa…
    follows a593be460657…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1450: TRIOBP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIOBP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.