Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1441

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.029; held-out -0.51 p 0.163). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1440, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1441
    17 Oct 2026, 22:53 UTC

    PLK3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLK3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered47c4397dc639cdfb

    discovery-0.72 p=0.029 n=9

    replication-0.51 p=0.163 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.029; held-out -0.51 p 0.163)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    c1c436dc5ed40d28fa535b2a…
    follows 481bb5c8d903…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1441: PLK3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.026, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.036, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLK3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.