Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1389

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.877). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1388, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1389
    17 Oct 2026, 21:41 UTC

    ETV1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionETV1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f52a63f6570ef3a

    discovery-0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.06, p 0.877)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7542e79cbf5f84b9fa55eb83…
    follows c16036680db7…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1389: ETV1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18), 95% CI -0.61 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ETV1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.