Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1383

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.083). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1382, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1383
    17 Oct 2026, 21:33 UTC

    ERBB2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionERBB2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8600c313e79d3aec

    discovery-0.61 p=0.083 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.61, p 0.083)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7a14833c0f1faaaeb94edfa4…
    follows d168700b0f1f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1383: ERBB2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.63 (p 0.0053, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.56 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ERBB2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.