Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12612

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12611, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12612
    28 Oct 2026, 03:18 UTC

    LGALS3BP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLGALS3BP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4b5d78e5084ff431

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.785 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    209d2841d2647a72258aed41…
    follows fe8b5fd26cfd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12612: LGALS3BP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LGALS3BP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.