Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12605

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.244). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12604, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12605
    28 Oct 2026, 03:10 UTC

    RPL13

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPL13 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2eaef07096c5fcde

    discovery+0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.244)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7e9bd689cb2ee3795c12b023…
    follows 7e6a390b6301…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12605: RPL13 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.29 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPL13 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.