Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12602

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12601, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12602
    28 Oct 2026, 03:07 UTC

    ATP8A1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionATP8A1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfd4aa762a322fcd2

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    677a9e9fa96acbd3633d184b…
    follows 179321830e30…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12602: ATP8A1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.16 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP8A1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.