Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0126

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.32, p 0.314). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 125, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0126
    16 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC

    SCN8A

    dopamine neurons, resilience

    predictionSCN8A in dopamine neurons differs in resilient donors (Lewy pathology, no parkinsonism)

    registeredf8a20d58aad83eb2

    discovery-0.32 p=0.314 n=24

    replication-0.11 p=0.671 n=31

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (rank-biserial r -0.32, p 0.314)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d8e14fb4ba7fd512b7e21255…
    follows d1ba74d7280f…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0126: SCN8A in dopamine neurons, resilience

power
full sample -0.20 (p 0.303, n 55), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.26 (p 0.178, n 55). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.12 (p 0.542); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.705, n 55). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.495, n 46). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
nigra beats resilience for SCN8A in dopamine neurons: +0.55 (p 5.0e-8, n 84). proposing nigra.

case closed: every proposal failed a challenge.