Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12597

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12596, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12597
    28 Oct 2026, 02:58 UTC

    DLC1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDLC1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered76e5073b60da15c6

    discovery+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication+0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4caf7af6750a98ca2cc3cc36…
    follows bf9d6242ed5d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12597: DLC1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DLC1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.