Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12593

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.383). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12592, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12593
    28 Oct 2026, 02:53 UTC

    PC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered99419b88245a2155

    discovery-0.33 p=0.383 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.383)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d43fd225a716e98d8400294a…
    follows 243b50f4df26…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12593: PC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.23. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.74 (p 4.4e-4, n 18) vs -0.27 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PC in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PC · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.02 p 0.929 (needs p < 1.8e-4)