Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12589

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.098). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12588, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12589
    28 Oct 2026, 02:47 UTC

    CHD8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHD8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc908e7d00b8724bd

    discovery-0.59 p=0.098 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.638 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.59, p 0.098)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1e4068897c8b2db9fca04ab9…
    follows 33b9b5c35268…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12589: CHD8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.109, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHD8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.