Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12533

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12532, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12533
    28 Oct 2026, 02:17 UTC

    CPAMD8

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCPAMD8 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede31e3f543e8f450a

    discovery-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication+0.57 p=0.109 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    69aa754ef0ef6b659cecdc79…
    follows 1bd56b7d4e4a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12533: CPAMD8 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CPAMD8 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.