Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12520

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12519, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12520
    28 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

    NTN4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNTN4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbc4268574b98371f

    discovery+0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication+0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    278c372ecc8132d8b25614a4…
    follows 2d477437392a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12520: NTN4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NTN4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.