Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0124

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.100). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 123, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0124
    16 Oct 2026, 17:10 UTC

    CHRM3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHRM3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7a92cebe71af7998

    discovery-0.26 p=0.100 n=42

    replication+0.09 p=0.577 n=42

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.100)

    datasimulated substantia nigra cohort (84 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    df096454605c8e4d82c6c345…
    follows 5c683351364e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0124: CHRM3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.418, n 84), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.13. the interval sits on zero: probably nothing there.
confounder
adjusted for age, sex and PMI: -0.05 (p 0.621, n 84). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis -0.72 (p 1.8e-14); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.743, n 84). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to -0.06, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.474, n 75). fragile.
cell type
strongest in glutamate neurons: +0.52 (p 3.2e-7, n 84) vs -0.09 in dopamine neurons. proposing glutamate neurons.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHRM3 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up confirmed in ventral tegmental area.
follow-up CHRM3 · glutamate neurons · braak: ventral tegmental area +0.50 p 2.0e-6 (needs p < 0.0026)