Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12313

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12312, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12313
    27 Oct 2026, 21:22 UTC

    LIPT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLIPT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc07cc0f250828e4a

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    77578266640dcf988c780f70…
    follows e8599874cf03…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12313: LIPT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.14, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LIPT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.