Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12306

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.013; held-out +0.02 p 0.962). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12305, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12306
    27 Oct 2026, 21:14 UTC

    P2RY13

    microglia, braak

    predictionP2RY13 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1579121512cd09d4

    discovery+0.78 p=0.013 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.013; held-out +0.02 p 0.962)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    41dac796f2f748837a63aed2…
    follows 91184c3c6d25…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12306: P2RY13 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.43 (p 0.072, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). holds up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.59, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for P2RY13 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.