Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12304

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.750). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12303, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12304
    27 Oct 2026, 21:11 UTC

    CCNA2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCNA2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbeafc56ce0cab7e0

    discovery-0.12 p=0.750 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.750)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f6859d09918bf52d29b0642b…
    follows a52fef20d574…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12304: CCNA2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCNA2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.