Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12261

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12260, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12261
    27 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC

    PSME3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSME3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered780f32359318b357

    discovery-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.19, p 0.631)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    005e881e82efd3609a6b4f3d…
    follows 06a76a35c88f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 12261: PSME3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSME3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.