Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12233

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12232, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12233
    27 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC

    CD82

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCD82 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8432daefec5a2cc

    discovery+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    replication-0.83 p=0.0051 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.787)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    faa4f0112e6c4fc36cf8cd34…
    follows f1f1c93b36c1…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12233: CD82 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD82 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.