Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 12225

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.222). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 12224, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 12225
    27 Oct 2026, 19:19 UTC

    ELK1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionELK1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaa458d25a098a178

    discovery-0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    replication-0.18 p=0.646 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.222)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a38caac5a6bfb23030ea281f…
    follows 812cd79ce14a…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 12225: ELK1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.37 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.298, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELK1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.