Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1206

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1205, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1206
    17 Oct 2026, 17:17 UTC

    HNF4G

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHNF4G in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7daeb403b6402d30

    discovery+0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.72 p=0.029 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3ab76e765e78a5cb19d3f650…
    follows 7e54a6b7926a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1206: HNF4G in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18), 95% CI +0.05 to +0.79. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.72 (p 7.4e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.43 to +0.66, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HNF4G in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.