Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1188

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.770). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1187, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1188
    17 Oct 2026, 16:49 UTC

    ABCG1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionABCG1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1b075a95fe7c1203

    discovery-0.11 p=0.770 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.023 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.770)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8f6275ad65c0a5dd649a41e7…
    follows 1d34c3ab882a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1188: ABCG1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.066, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABCG1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.