Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11672

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11671, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11672
    27 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC

    EIF3K

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEIF3K in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8cedbe4924490855

    discovery-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    930676fb4b6a0d622c588eb1…
    follows 8c4acb22d2e4…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11685 (2026-10-27 07:18 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11672: EIF3K in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EIF3K in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.