Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11641

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11640, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11641
    27 Oct 2026, 06:21 UTC

    SMO

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSMO in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf65e24e81b760edc

    discovery-0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    replication-0.68 p=0.046 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a09ce99b8b999149baa97ad4…
    follows 5509321858f2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11658 (2026-10-27 06:43 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11641: SMO in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.173, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SMO in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.