Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1164

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1163, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1164
    17 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC

    PRDM15

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRDM15 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered891ec89adac08ee6

    discovery-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.148 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8fff132d3faf4d08f03cb52f…
    follows 6bbbfc61478a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1164: PRDM15 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.49 (p 0.040, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRDM15 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.