Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11627

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11626, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11627
    27 Oct 2026, 06:05 UTC

    MYB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMYB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered28853474824d7ab0

    discovery+0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    replication+0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.15, p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    25fc67c15c1cca537bd59c9e…
    follows d1d1f0492a34…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11630 (2026-10-27 06:08 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11627: MYB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.16 to +0.69. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.