Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11605

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.735). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11604, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11605
    27 Oct 2026, 05:37 UTC

    LAMP5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLAMP5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered67fdd8737bfe4977

    discovery+0.13 p=0.735 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.735)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a8d7af4929cd2ca637462fad…
    follows 80b69339fe4e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11605 (2026-10-27 05:37 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11605: LAMP5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.12, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LAMP5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.