Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11595

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.716). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11594, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11595
    27 Oct 2026, 05:23 UTC

    DEPP1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDEPP1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered192c1764b13eda17

    discovery-0.14 p=0.716 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.732 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.716)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fedcfbae43825eb8272f102c…
    follows ec9550764eb2…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11605 (2026-10-27 05:37 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11595: DEPP1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to +0.01, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18) vs -0.11 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DEPP1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up DEPP1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.48 p 0.091 (needs p < 1.9e-4)