Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 11588

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.784). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 11587, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 11588
    27 Oct 2026, 05:15 UTC

    WNT10B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWNT10B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf193ffe64af3aea9

    discovery+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.186 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.784)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5c404ca4719793084cd560d9…
    follows 0598e7b9d45e…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 11605 (2026-10-27 05:37 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 11588: WNT10B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WNT10B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.